Spatial Beta-Convergence Forecasting Models: Evidence from Municipal Homicide Rates in Colombia

Homicide rates are forecasted for 1120 inland municipalities in Colombia. Using data from 2003 to 2018, five different forecasting methods are used: ETS, ARIMA, STAR, a classical beta convergence based model and a spatial beta convergence model. Time series cross validation for 4-year ahead forecasts is implemented to assess the accuracy of all models. It is found that the STAR and the beta models have the lowest root mean squared errors.

Continue Reading